Has Traffic Peaked at Social Sites?

October 17, 2006

Interesting report from Nielson shows that the main social players like MySpace, Facebook and YouTube all saw less visitors to their sites in September when compared to August. This is really interesting as most online marketers will tell you that web site traffic usually picks up after Labor Day, it doesn’t fall!

From the Neilson report:

Visitors to social network heavyweight MySpace dropped to 47.2 million in September from 49.2 million in August, a 4 percent decline, per Nielsen//NetRatings. The decrease was more striking at YouTube, which Google just agreed to acquire for $1.65 billion. Compared to August, traffic in September fell 19 percent to 27.6 million. Facebook, which is a fixture on college campuses, had visitor counts drop 12 percent to 7.8 million

Corinna Chang, a Nielsen//NetRatings data analyst, said the traffic dips could be attributed to the start of the school year, when:

“activities like blogging and video searching would experience a decrease as students are focusing on schoolwork and not leisure activities.”

The headline for this article in Adweek was “Social Networks See Back-to-School Drop-off” which is plain wrong. In the article Adweek mentioned that

“Nielsen//NetRatings rival ComScore Media Metrix this month said half of MySpace users are over 35”.

If half of MySpace’s users are over 35, why would back to school cause them to spend less time online? They would not. So if the cause is not back to school then what is it?

The most telling point in the story is that YouTube traffic fall by 19% in September. That is not a small amount, especially for a site that was just purchased for $1.65 billion.

I do not believe that less people are using social sites. What I wonder is whether these numbers are a sign that users are starting to move away from MySpace and YouTube to sites like Bebo or Xanga? It is too early to tell, but it is something that it worth paying close attention to over the next six months. If your marketing dollars are being directed towards MySpace or Facebook you might want to check those ROI’s and make sure that you are getting the visibility that you anticipated.

{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }

Sherwood October 17, 2006 at 12:00 pm

There isn’t always a direct connection between registered users and visits.

Over-35 might make-up half of MySpace users, but it’s likely that the under-35 segment is much more socially active. Therefore, their absense would be felt more greatly.

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David Wilson October 17, 2006 at 3:31 pm

I agree that the under-35 segment is much more socially active than the over-35 crowd. So if the under-35 crowd is moving away from MySpace and YouTube to more “cool” sites then we should start to see a decrease in the number of page views per visit.

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